Hong Kong’s well-known economist, Larry Lang
“China’s 99% of white-collar workers and their family will soon face bankruptcy. But inevitable bankruptcy! Run away! This incident may have occurred over the next 2-10 years. You can go as far as possible doubt about this figure. But it is bound to happen not alarmist. “As I predicted the inevitable unemployment, Chinese state-owned enterprise workers, as in that time no one would believe you. But it does occur. Because in China, a developing country, with the inevitable in order to keep the means of inflation and reform in exchange for economic development. And each time the pains of reform brought about by ordinary people to afford. When you confused whether it is mountainous and rural areas of the educated youth who is still a large number of state-owned enterprises reform and opening up have brought about closing down a large number of laid-off workers. If they can have a certain forward-looking, then I think they might leave a little for their route of retreat. However, due to over-documentation and over-confident that life will not be mutation, so that had led to the tragedy of their lives.
Some people say that the Government would not sit idly by white-collar bankruptcy, in fact, the government Of course not. Some things … … how can I say. I think back to the laid-off workers bar. Caused so much social unrest. Can what? Today’s white-collar workers will become bankrupt just like the time also.
The reform and opening up 20 years ago, China’s economy has developed quickly take off. But the old system did not completely change. A variety of key industries are still in force is a government monopoly system in operation. Such as: banking, finance, metallurgy, energy, information, transportation, health care, education, land. In the reform and opening up of China’s impossible for these things to all aspects of the reform and opening up. But today, the contradictions arising from monopolistic operations become increasingly prominent.
The first candidate is the real estate. As China’s legal system is not perfect, particularly in areas of finance and reform, emergence of a variety of mistakes made by the real-estate has been rising. With the increase in real estate as well as the external concentration of population to large cities. Therefore, new urban migrant workers, which is the so-called “white-collar” income on the surface is also upgrading to Beijing as an example a monthly salary of RMB 3000-15000 everywhere. But this part of the income is mainly used to pay rent, or loan repayment.
To better understand why 99% of white-collar families may go bankrupt, we must first understand why house prices so high? High in where? Funds are running it? (In this case refers to the white-collar workers prepared to buy a house buy a house or family.), And the development trend of the correlation effects. This will be explained to you in three stages.
1: cause prices soared there in the first factor: banks loans, opening up competition.
In fact, an explosion of house prices was mainly due to the factors that people could mistake for the government foot the bill. Example, previously a developer through a bank loan of 10 million to develop a house. If not, since he’s luck, because all of the banks are a system, you owe the money did not also had no more opportunity to turn around. But China’s banking reform on the basis of a hole in opened to competition between banks so the ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, etc. all operate independently. This should have been a good thing. But the problem is that these banks are not private, but the state. We are not difficult to imagine. When a developer 10 million loan from ICBC’s consequences. He only need 5 million to develop the house and then raise prices, then this development in the price of the house according to his standards for mortgage loans to 20 million from the Agricultural Bank of China again, and then using this for 20 million of 10 million to develop a sets of higher house prices came to 40 million mortgage loans CCB. Is such a snowball crazy lending models.
Mai Bumai get out of the house is not important, the key is prices higher, not lower prices. Anyway, money is not a private bank, so the little things straightened out Governor blessed “legitimate” high retail price of real estate as collateral so naturally getting better and better from the bank loans.
So this result is that house prices do not just climb down! Because they can not fall! One fell out in respect of bank loans no longer figure. However, the government’s bank, the government’s money! Therefore, in order to block the funding black hole has been bought some experts, the media began to create public opinion using a variety of media madness means coercion of people to buy a house.
Such as land resources are seriously strained, do not buy a house in the future can only live in the suburbs 呀 the category. Cause people to have to go buy a house. In fact, can not live in this city such a situation was impossible, the urban is a process of replacement of old and new, to go to work to live in the city, old age retirement suburbs like to live. As long as the population explosion would not have white-collar workers do not live downtown can not be the case. Although these media created a lot of people buy a house, but only so, house prices have not yet high enough to present such a ridiculous. Then the Government made a second mistake.
2: The cause prices soared there’s a second error: a mortgage with Chinese characteristics.
The mortgage was originally a very popular system in the West, it is very appropriate. However, this is to be applied to China on a little problem. Because from the major institutional terms. All banks are the state, rather than private. The lending to this juncture can not put the situation under control. Justifiable as long as the file, it will be able to loan to the section.
In order to alleviate the first error as soon as possible the funds arising from the black hole. Government began to implement the mortgage system to house sales person. What is also often cite the United States to his wife and the Chinese woman’s example to lure people to the mortgage. Indeed it was the mortgage, and mortgage and is crazy. And banks as long as a little “road” people. They first started with a 800,000 mortgage the house of their own out of 100,000 down payment and then from the bank to lend 70 万. And then after the house sale to raise prices to 1.8 million. This time, their relatives or father mother Zaiqu bought, but also a way to use their own mortgage out of 300,000 down payment and then 1.5 million loan from the bank. And then and go on. They do not how to do the loan? Banks love close of charge. Anyway, I do not yet under contract on the money you can take the house, we have two incompatible owe.
So turn in a circle, driving up the price of the house several times back in the hands of the government to return to the bank. This explains why a lot of new flats, the beginning of repair has been “real estate speculators group” bought the. They are fried not bet the house will appreciate. It took to clean up the house bank.
Banks got the house how to do? Are afraid to cut prices of. Will add value and then had to sell. So forget about the ordinary people it is time to buy a real house at a reasonable price! Even if you bought directly from the developer of the hands of the houses have several times might have switched to hand back the hands of banks and developers. Say something did not sound good now 8,000 / sq house, there is only 2,500 housing prices, there are 5500 that the decision errors are caused by financial black hole! In other words you are restricted to the team working on the backside.
3: The third question: When will white-collar families of bankruptcy? ?
So we looked at why the house prices will go up, again look at the so-called white-collar workers in Chinese cities the necessity of family bankruptcy.
First, the foreign white-collar income is really high, but high value. China is the so-called white-collar workers are generally poor quality. Chinese enterprises serious internal friction. Everyone phase of light, everyone stubborn. So no wonder that a foreign-funded enterprises to enter Chinese market began to exclaim: “In China, enterprises can not get people to do!” I am also deeply understands. That someone would say: “Now that is not worth the worth of the white-collar workers, then Mizuki Zhou Ping, please tell me why they can do to get such a salary?” In fact, because of the hot real estate caused by a quantum effect. Banks lost a lot of money through the hands of a few flows to the market. These people began to make aggressive investments in other areas of China. That is because they know that real estate is about to collapse of the. They do a another round of investment boom is rapidly absorb these funds, they invest in the Internet, invest in high-tech, investment entertainment, investment many areas. But at least enough to pay wages to employees or to pay the monthly rent on a house for the bar. Therefore, it is precisely because of rising house prices has created the relative wage levels in China’s urban population increase. Do not believe in yourself where you calculate the average income of urban white-collar workers, once finished paying the monthly housing money, how much money will be left to the hands? I think this problem again, I do not have a bar wordy. Members of psychological few. So I can say that, once followed by the collapse of the real estate crash, is your wages.
I know there are many, many white-collar workers who have bought a room. Their calculation is simple: “The couple Aside from the various tax insurance, the monthly net income is still 12000. What kind of money to pay 3000 room? I can buy a set of it!” Yes, nothing. But because the house so what your are expensive. Expensive to eat, transportation expensive, high tuition fees, medical expenses, more expensive! ! ! Therefore, the money you have paid a room again except the cost of living is basically a penny on deposit for it, even if the deposit point is also not keep up with the normal rate of inflation. Problem is that if the status quo can be maintained, then, theoretically that there should be all right. You this twenty-earned money just to make up for the loss resulting from the two errors.
But the problem also lies in here. WTO5-year grace period with the end of a large number of foreign-funded telecommunications, banking, health care, insurance, and so the company will soon enter China. At that time no one can stop you put money into United States, deposited in HSBC. Will look at that time who is willing to put money in the amount of bad debts so many Chinese state-owned banks? Even if the Government no matter how measures may also be run on, so what will happen in time is still hard to say. But one thing is certain is that when the time pressure on China’s state-of these banks will become enormous. Loans will be more difficult to add, because the banks have no money to loan! At the same time a large number of foreign-funded enterprises with high-quality human resources in China will certainly lead to a strong impact on the market and the collapse of a large number of existing enterprises, as well as white-collar unemployment. In other words. Once the foreign-funded enterprises to enter the competition, China’s current 99% of white-collar workers will face employment pressure is large environment!
And once the accumulated funds of foreign banks started to invest in real estate, then it is normal due to their operational processes so the house will be built out of cheap, with the inevitable pull the national real estate dropped sharply. As I said earlier, prices fell 1, followed by or is your business where wages! Can be before you buy a house loan repayment will not lower prices or reduced, so you will not be able to pay the high loans. Then your house will be taken away by banks, your deposit will be directly freeze. Therefore, China’s future urban white-collar workers were most likely and a few decades ago, the same as Chinese state-owned enterprise workers. Hard two decades,
How to avoid bankruptcy?
To see where you should be aware, do not buy a house is a good way to avoid bankruptcy. But I would also like to remind you that, in order to push up property prices may not fall, they have one way, it is disgusting to the people will not buy a house on the menfolk is not a child! You Do not say that this really have some effect. Right now most people a port of the first sentence is: “do you have room.” It seems you do not like the room is a eunuch. I am really angry and even the curse put all my energy gone. There are people on Baidu Mizuki Zhouping bar where posted in this quote, said: “do not buy a house where you live?” I was surprised, and housing and to buy is there a causal link? In China, a land not belonging to your house and rented out to sell it to you, what is your difference?
(Laughs). Not to mention the bandits the same property and the forced relocation of people wrong person! This is not simply “The Emperor’s New Clothes” do? Nevertheless, since the WTO have mentioned that the publishing industry and the media industry, China is still not opening up. Then save the city, public opinion will become final in the hands of the government and developers a trump card.
Therefore, we in the face of a lot of rhetoric, when more than half a brain, or their own. After a pack of lies we hear more and more property, more and more outrageous! For example, there has recently advocated brick home in house prices is not expensive, it said: “What if the annual salary 50000, The couple is also the year of 100,000, 5 years on the 500,000. So, of course, price is not expensive.” I was actually surprised Some nod? Perhaps it is this or these have evolved to eat or drink without disease can not be fixed and the father and mother had to wear no dead brick home with the support really is so it might be going on. Therefore, attention to vigilance.
Conclusion:
Has been prepared to buy a house buy a house or a family of white-collar workers will collapse with the collapse of housing prices, that would be a slow process occurring. A short while two years, or as long as ten years. But this is an irreversible trend. Therefore, China 99% of urban white-collar workers, said a family already facing bankruptcy not an alarmist! Today you went to the bank to pay for each housing allocation money is for the Government on behalf of real estate speculators who fill holes, and only a small part of the room is the real money. Tomorrow’s environment is changed, you do not have much money to fill holes when the markets and banks will be kicked back to my hometown, for a number of new people come and then fill. Do not believe it? Wait and see Bai! – PS: Why do I say that 99% of this number, because according to my understanding, once a monthly salary of 99% over 5000 people began to buy a house, or even to buy 3000,4000. What lovers do not understand this way of life will go on to buy badly. I just feel sad for them. Of course, if you are that one percent of the wise, multi-advised to save their bar. The joy to celebrate together than alone.
Chinese people are on the four large when
Largest When: Real Estate
Buy a house mean? Means that you have a house of their own. Yes, you think so, but in China, you did not have this house, but only leased to you. Because the house is yours, not your land, but land use rights for 70 years (retired 70 years from now that is anti-Japanese war, who have seen the house that time?). House, usually 30 years or so will be met, or demolition of old building transformation. That means you spent the money buy a house, but can only get the rent of the practical results. Of course, this is not the worst. The worst is that when you find that after decades of fools! A group of rogue burst into using their life savings to buy your house, draw a big split-! Then all of your belongings, like when the garbage is still out of doors, regardless of your pleading and even in the newspaper to give you the press of a notorious nail households, any abuse of the public when you’ll know the meaning of despair!
Describing China’s real estate has a well-known joke is written like this:
Previously, there was a lot of ground landlords, finding a lot of permanent work, and the landlord to build a number of long-term workers who lived in unity and floor, one day, the landlord of the advisors to the landlord, said: boss, permanent are the hands of a little money in recent years They live in your house, the monthly pay Zuzi, not worth, anyway, they will never Zhuxia Qu, do not you just sell them the house from a enjoying a certain reputation called – public houses for sale! To tell them that the house will always belong to them, you can take them to save money in the past few years to recover, the landlord said: Yes, then how do the rent? Advisers, said: According to income is not wrong, from a Japanese name of children, called property management fee! Landowners to implement quickly, and make a lot of money, long-term workers were that happy ah!
After a few years, the landlord of the village developed into cities and towns, the rich more and more, no place to live, advisors to the landlord, said: owner, long-term workers who in recent years they have money in hand, let them build new houses , from their places is called a transformation of old cities, they switch their money to us, and we demolished the house to build a new, tell them to buy back, you can sell more than cover a number of others, the landlord has carried out, this time, some long-term workers who not happy, and the landlord’s retainers put to use, and permanent teeth were destroyed had to stomach the pharynx, the landlord has earned a lot of money.
It took another few years, the landlord’s village developed into a big city, and the rich more, and the landlord of the land more valuable, and advisors to the landlord, said: boss, let’s split the house of these long-term employment, and in this place to build villas , the dissolution of the house sold out to cover those who can profit from the rich wealthy, the landlord said: long-term workers are not put how to do? Advisers, said: 咱 something to give them more money, from a enjoying a certain reputation called monetization resettlement, 咱 then let’s build a house next to the pen, from a enjoying a certain reputation called affordable housing, give them repair a wagon Road, to allow them to buy over there Room to live, the landlord said: They have enough money to how to do? Advisers, said: From a banking house’s House by the former to them, 6 points a year profits, with money, young of animals can Zanzhe money, not any risk, the landlord has carried out long-term employment have their money, the landlord of affordable housing until now built a long-term employment they had to wait in line for the house, until now, still waiting for it … …
As a result, long-term workers have begun to make trouble, and the landlord a little panic, Mangwen advisors how to do? Advisors said: they must notify the long-term workers who have a house to be dropped in price, do not buy, rent to live it, just put our pen rented it to them as a result, so many years, long-term workers are not all the money, and still rent housing, forever!
This joke though a bit exaggerated, but in fact it not also true? Some people say that being the case? Why do Chinese people still buy a house? Crazy like buying a car? Why? Is not the result of the stupefying education system, as if 60 years, advocating that people have to buy San Dajian: watches, sewing machines, bicycles can be a truly successful people who married a wife. 70 years preached that people must buy a new four items: TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, installations of telephones it is considered to be married and have children out of the head, like a telephone installed we will have to remember that when the thousands of dollars a ah (per capita income of less than 200 of the town ), and Beijing is more on the case of the Department of Shanghai when the numbers have to queue up for take human, and how the similarity of today’s buy a house?
Today all of the shit and scholars began to fool the people of this set of old strokes: White-collar family of new standards, successful people new options of small-X ring X Road, X ring X Road, commercial and residential type. After you have collected hundreds of thousands, have to charge you a monthly rent (the new property management fee), bank interest, and a variety of all sorts of excuses to raise interest rates, policies, and so on and so forth. In short you do not be afraid of the entire die, not afraid to die you miserable! Gnaw on how happy the people fooled, but 100 on the tire of it? I am really angry spend all day hanging wet!
The second-largest when: Employment
When someone finally begun to lament: At the time when the educated youth, when someone feels there is no way out, after being laid off, no one can ignore a sit-in protest, only people onto the street and also laughing with the song compilation heroic life, start over time. Have you ever thought of! They also have the same white-collar workers today and scenery! Their income and status has also been to the people around envy? You may have thought 20 years later! Like you would like them onto the street, deserted by its allies? !
Some people say hey! You do not know of unemployment insurance, pension insurance, XX Yao insurance? Oh, I was in Beijing adrift N years, many insurance paid about tens of thousands of your speech, but when the Pao Duantui unemployment and no one gave me Han insurance, but many insurance policies have been frozen that I had paid off, and I simply Also anger … … this were not enough, do you think you go to a 60-year-old can really start to get old-age insurance, it? Heaven and would not swap the money! Today’s elderly people to take the pension is that we earn! Today 30-40 year-olds usually have several brothers and sisters! Means that today’s elderly to get in the 60-year-old old-age insurance is because there are five individuals for an old man! After we get old of this generation is the one for us two old people! The money come from? Did not come! If you can live to 90 years of age is estimated to receive a number of old-age insurance, hey you take care of yourself bar. But even so, parents, or crazy like to send their children to a variety of enterprises where the state-owned units to send, my side will always have such an example. I am home a distant relative, to find the relationship between drag friends, have spent the money through a public recruitment 70000 son sent to a traffic police force, dry on the contract system of the police. Take 800 a month. The results of the third year of competition for posts has been to the brush down. A man crying, I said a good brush, you earn a lifetime ban on those that do not return to 70000, immediately before sleeping and washing, changing out some money and then do a small business Minato go! Probably can earn.
When I graduated, I was also led me uncivil language holding money to send me to the XX department. I saw the man responsible for hiring and that virtue, they could not help the nausea, Made in salary, uncivilized language Yes, I is not white dry for 10 years before bringing the cost of not eat or drink. So I had that guy is a privately threatened, scared that potbellied X-chief no longer afraid to admit me. I did have to have: away from home.
I wanted not understand? Chinese people gnaw on such a silly? Chinese characters do such a superstition? Wake up, thinking that the line is not normal? Do the math before doing things worthwhile to not?
There are those little white-collar workers were young age, finding a job is best to pay a higher point, do not want insurance, medical insurance and Han, and then save up your money the best insurance in the future Yong Dezhe.
When the third-largest: Education
A diploma worth? A diploma worth? A diploma worth? The cost of printing money to the top of the two days. The amount of salary a teacher? Hey, two students a semester of tuition enough! A class book printing How much? 2 students enough! How much rent one class a semester? Hei hei two students is sufficient. ! Hallo! Education in China so much money you have received Pingsha! ?
Hallo! The people are! So why should we be taken in? Because the ruling class, told us an early age was admitted to be an honorable scholar. Oh I’m sorry I am wrong, is not admitted to universities are glorious. But people never think about why not to honor? Why honor … … and how the University of scholar is not the waste!
Do you know who your child is to teach Mody? In China is generally unable to adapt to society, people would become a teacher, for example. I have a project some time ago because of the relationship, finding a few universities to do Master’s program. Resulted in several people stupid enough, you totally do not give consideration have to be guarding you to work, but also to the files there is a clear typos, do not give change, so you find you are kind enough to seriously, is that this was not his fault It is you give is wrong. Little sense of responsibility, one would not consider whether it was to do something and do something or do something in order to do something. I was very calm them reason: you must learn to think for others to think about what results you want others to do things again. Otherwise it is impossible to survive in society. The result was a few, said: we do not go to the community, we have a very good examination results, the school wants us to staying in school as a teacher. We can say that again had nothing wrong, how can you arranged for us to how to do, do not you arranged for us to not do so. This is our dignity and principles. I said: If you go to gatekeepers, the boss is not arranged, when you work you will not lock storage lock it? Do you scared? After your child is under the guidance of people like to learn and grow. Rest assured Mody?
No wonder now read the University of cohabitation, truancy, fighting, suicide … … However, parents are still willing to spend money to send their children to the schools, but a lifetime to spend money.
The fourth-largest when: buy a car
Chinese people crazy? Buy a car? Why buy a car? ? ? Of course, you not only have money to spend, you love how to buy how to buy, buy a car buy a house, anyway, how oil prices rose Hua Buwan you money, a house you do not feel bad to be relocated. But most people do?
I used to have my colleagues live in the North Second Ring Road, the company Xizhimen there. Take the subway to work every day than half an hour the most. May have to buy a second-hand Xiali daily 8 am start on the road Du Zhao, and then moved to 1.1 points of the company. Hey, a month are a lot of parking fees. Can someone opened the car felt a little high for identity. Do not say to open a Xiali, that is to open a Audi whom I have not seen who worship three knock 9. In addition to their own than others seems a little silly things no other effect.
On another occasion, I met a girl a month income to 4000, a car loan in the plan. So I asked her: a little girl, you are powerless to do business, their work on time, Metro and convenient to buy a car do? Thought for a long time, it is estimated that they could not think of any reason to come to say: Sometimes things go to the supermarket to buy it, hit another car near a point that is not worth the walk are far from the point of. So, drive yourself go! I almost did not hear the sick die. You drive to the supermarket to buy a instant noodles do not feel sick Mody? Equipped with cellular phones to ragpicker also ragpicker’s! Do not think that buying a car can prove anything.
For example, I now has his own business, very busy day, He walked about 4-5 places, see a lot of clients. But I do not buy a car, why? I hit that car with the move, the kick down the left, do not worry about no place to park, do not worry about hanging a touch, and without fear of being thieves stole a tie, whether the rain has hung the wind driver. Peng Zhao a traffic jam in case you can also get off subway. Year, also more than ten thousand pieces RMB! Want to buy a car! Parking fees had to more than ten thousand a year! This is not a silly Mody?
Do not buy a car Do not buy a car that could have so many people like to go crazy loans to buy? Must be too miserable enough to die like their own future! Buy it, buy a finished raising interest rates has not it? Oil prices are not crazy? Parking is more expensive not it? Regret not you? Sheung on a new car value plunges by selling also can only sell not it? ?
To tell you that oil prices have to rise. Must be the same as oil prices rose to and dollars. Hei hei! You get the old US-1 / 10 of income, Hong Kong Sanatorium and others a price of gasoline. I see you do not have to se.
Finally to say that everyone is not stupid, are small by stupefying education Jinong Han had. Silly is fine, but the lives of Yau boundary Shier you still tight with points, more calculating calculating the relationship between the economic interests! Do not the end, a down real estate, oil one up, took the money to pay the rest of my life, or Han Han graduation certificate will not be dry for several decades to pay exorbitant taxes and levies also Han Han welfare does not. You can not just spread loss of hundreds of thousands.
What was said? Oh no way, can not live, and do not buy a car 啦, bus a good squeeze 呀. I say that out of all the stupefying education system is doing strange vanity. You look at me, rent a house to live before more than 1000 pieces a month, also the equivalent of some people’s property management fee. If you want to get married I could afford to rent 3-4 1000, the furniture, decoration should be given a full one. Which convenient, but also where I live. Do not want to move on long-term lease. And also a kind of cross-property charges. Also in vain to save quite a further bank loans, interest, a lot of down payment. Emergency should carry a car, all right on the subway, the year 10,000 days, but he still saved the garage fees, parking fees, fines pile, oil prices rose to 10 Yue He also does not delay things. I did not finish college ran away, while the market out of self-study while planning to run their own business, do not they also can enter the foreign-invested enterprises, listed companies a manager Mody? Also free up tens of thousands of tuition fees.
Of course, some people would say: You do not even have a house to buy, specify the knot can not be married. I thought to myself: I am not, you think you have ah? Some people say that renting an apartment is not worth the rental finished or someone else, and hey, do you think buying a house was also for decades loans paid off is your, ah … …